In his June 18, 2025 analysis for the Carnegie Endowment’s Russia Eurasia Center, Jarábik argues that the European Union must recalibrate its approach to Belarus. He contends that continuing to treat Belarus merely as a moral cause risks rendering the EU irrelevant in a region where leverage, not sentiment, will determine outcomes.Jarábik emphasizes that while Belarus's EU trajectory is unlikely to reverse, its pace will depend more on Brussels' willingness to enlarge than on Minsk's capacity to reform. He warns that in today's securitized regional climate, the real danger lies not in backsliding but in the potential escalation of domestic tensions if the electoral process is mishandled—a vulnerability Russia is well-positioned to exploit.
