In his latest op-ed, Balázs Jarábik examines Donald Trump’s audacious use of U.S. global leverage – rooted in trade, finance, and data chokepoints – to push through two high-profile peace initiatives: the recently signed Azerbaijan–Armenia agreement and the upcoming Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin on Ukraine.
The Washington deal, while ending one of the Caucasus’s bloodiest conflicts, leaves critical details vague, particularly around the so-called “Trump Route,” which raises constitutional and sovereignty issues for Armenia. Strategically, it weakens both Iran and Russia’s position in the region.
The upcoming Alaska meeting carries even higher stakes. A “freeze” on the war would be a limited but tangible victory for Moscow - what Ukraine also desperately needs. Trump would fulfill a campaign promise – and clearly angle for the Nobel Peace Prize – but at a political and strategic cost borne by others. As Jarábik argues, Ukraine is unlikely to abandon its most fortified positions without resistance, evoking uncomfortable parallels to Czechoslovakia in 1939.
The piece challenges readers to look beyond Trump’s erratic style, revealing a strategy aimed not at universally acceptable compromise but at maximizing personal political gain – a strategy that can work, but at someone else’s expense.