In an interview with Slovak daily Postoj (July 6, 2025), analyst and former diplomat Balázs Jarábik warned that while Ukraine successfully navigated the initial phase of Russia’s full-scale invasion, it now risks losing the second, more complex phase of the war. Jarábik pointed to Russia’s evolving tactics, including targeted drone strikes on major Ukrainian cities, the erosion of Ukraine’s air defense effectiveness, and the looming end of U.S. financial grants. As Europe faces mounting pressure to double its financial and military commitments to Ukraine, the war’s economic burden is shifting westward. Unless Ukraine recalibrates its strategy and secures sustainable external support, Jarábik cautions, the country risks being reduced to a militarized outpost rather than achieving its democratic and European aspirations.