In an interview with Radio Svaboda, Balázs Jarábik assessed Belarus’s increasingly constrained strategic position amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. He argued that while Minsk seeks to preserve a degree of autonomy, its deepening dependence on Russia significantly limits its room for maneuver. Jarábik noted that the regime continues to balance cautiously, avoiding direct involvement in the war – as part of a new social contract - while maintaining loyalty to Moscow. He highlighted that any meaningful re-engagement with the West remains unlikely under current conditions, leaving Belarus locked in a trajectory of managed dependence with diminishing strategic flexibility.