Published by Carnegie’s Russia Eurasia Center on July 15, 2025, this memo follows Balázs Jarábik’s working visit to Chișinău ahead of Moldova’s critical 2025 September parliamentary elections. The analysis highlights rising stakes and growing risks of (self-)deception as Moldova approaches this pivotal vote. While the country’s European Union trajectory is unlikely to reverse, its pace will hinge less on Chișinău’s reform efforts and more on Brussels’ readiness to deepen enlargement. In an increasingly securitized regional environment, the greater threat is not backsliding on reforms but the escalation of domestic tensions triggered by a mishandled electoral process—an opening Russia is well-positioned to exploit. 

In his June 18, 2025 analysis for the Carnegie Endowment’s Russia Eurasia Center, Jarábik argues that the European Union must recalibrate its approach to Belarus. He contends that continuing to treat Belarus merely as a moral cause risks rendering the EU irrelevant in a region where leverage, not sentiment, will determine outcomes.Jarábik emphasizes that while Belarus's EU trajectory is unlikely to reverse, its pace will depend more on Brussels' willingness to enlarge than on Minsk's capacity to reform. He warns that in today's securitized regional climate, the real danger lies not in backsliding but in the potential escalation of domestic tensions if the electoral process is mishandled—a vulnerability Russia is well-positioned to exploit.