In an interview with The Sunday Times, Balázs Jarábik argues that Kyiv’s tougher posture toward Belarus reflects a broader shift in Ukraine’s emerging regional strategy. After years of avoiding steps that could push Minsk deeper into Moscow’s orbit, President Zelensky has become more assertive, warning Belarus over alleged relay stations supporting Russian drone operations and increasingly treating Ukraine’s growing military capabilities as an instrument of regional influence.
“Ukraine is emerging as a regional player, particularly in the security domain,” Jarábik said, pointing to Kyiv’s expanding medium- and long-range strike capabilities. He linked the change partly to Ukrainian concerns over Washington’s rapprochement with Minsk, which Kyiv fears could become a stepping stone toward Western coexistence with Russia rather than its containment.
Jarábik stressed that the "Belarus balcony", ones a strategic risk, now turned into vulnerability: its industrial facilities and oil refineries would be extremely difficult to defend against Ukrainian strikes. This helps explain Lukashenko’s effort to avoid direct confrontation with Kyiv while preserving Belarusian sovereignty from deeper Russian military penetration. As Jarábik put it, neither Lukashenko nor the Belarusian opposition wants Belarus to become Putin’s “consolation prize” if Russia fails to achieve its objectives in Ukraine.
Full interview https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/ukraine-belarus-zelensky-lukashenko-nxbltkr5r