Balázs Jarábik recently visited Moldova ahead of its crucial parliamentary elections. The country is experiencing growing political polarization: the government, led by the PAS party, retains strong EU backing, while the newly formed Patriotic Bloc is gaining ground by tapping into social discontent—and Russian money. The political center is hollowing out, echoing last year’s presidential race, and with 40% of voters still undecided, the outcome remains uncertain. His backgrounder, explaining why Moldova matters as Ukraine’s soft underbelly and what these dynamics mean for the country’s domestic stability and EU trajectory, was published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Essential Ukraine is a bi-monthly publication of Minority Report hosted by R.Politik, offering in-depth analysis of Ukraine's internal political landscape, institutions, and societal transformations. Authored by Balázs Jarábik, a seasoned observer of Ukrainian politics, the publication provides grounded insights tailored for policymakers, diplomats, and analysts.Unlike other services, Essential Ukraine prioritizes depth and realism over frequency, focusing on the structural and societal changes influenced by the ongoing conflict.
In the latest 6th edition, Jarabik delves into the complexities of Ukraine's defense strategy amidst escalating pressures.The report highlights the challenges posed by Russia's evolving tactics and the strain on Ukraine's military resources. The analysis underscores the critical need for strategic recalibration and sustained international support to navigate the shifting dynamics of the conflict.
Published on October 23, 2023, by the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM), this essay offers a comprehensive analysis of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War and its broader regional consequences. Two years on, the essay remains strikingly relevant as it anticipated structural dilemmas that now define Ukraine’s battlefield and diplomatic realities in 2025. Jarábik examines the war's origins and argues that the West's understanding of these events remains oversimplified, leading to underestimation of Ukraine's resilience and NATO's unpreparedness for the current war of attrition. Break Point shifted focus from a binary “victory or defeat” lens to the long-term consequences of a frozen conflict. Western policymakers increasingly align with this view, managing escalation risks and strategic fatigue rather than expecting quick resolutions.
Published by Carnegie’s Russia Eurasia Center on July 15, 2025, this memo follows Balázs Jarábik’s working visit to Chișinău ahead of Moldova’s critical 2025 September parliamentary elections. The analysis highlights rising stakes and growing risks of (self-)deception as Moldova approaches this pivotal vote. While the country’s European Union trajectory is unlikely to reverse, its pace will hinge less on Chișinău’s reform efforts and more on Brussels’ readiness to deepen enlargement. In an increasingly securitized regional environment, the greater threat is not backsliding on reforms but the escalation of domestic tensions triggered by a mishandled electoral process—an opening Russia is well-positioned to exploit.
In his June 18, 2025 analysis for the Carnegie Endowment’s Russia Eurasia Center, Jarábik argues that the European Union must recalibrate its approach to Belarus. He contends that continuing to treat Belarus merely as a moral cause risks rendering the EU irrelevant in a region where leverage, not sentiment, will determine outcomes.Jarábik emphasizes that while Belarus's EU trajectory is unlikely to reverse, its pace will depend more on Brussels' willingness to enlarge than on Minsk's capacity to reform. He warns that in today's securitized regional climate, the real danger lies not in backsliding but in the potential escalation of domestic tensions if the electoral process is mishandled—a vulnerability Russia is well-positioned to exploit.
