Prepared for Balázs Jarábik’s participation at the Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn, this memo for the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) examines Ukraine’s evolving wartime political system after the departure of Andriy Yermak.
Jarábik argues that the system continues to adapt: external support provides strategic stability, while internal pressures - from governance challenges and elite competition to societal fatigue - continue to accumulate.
The analysis highlights the paradox of wartime Ukraine: a state that remains remarkably resilient and functional under extreme pressure, yet increasingly stretched by the cumulative effects of a prolonged war. Managing this balance between adaptation and attrition will shape the political trajectory ahead.
Memo: https://icds.ee/en/ukraines-adaptation-stabilised-from-outside-stretched-from-within/
Lennart Meri Conference (breakfast panel): https://www.flickr.com/photos/lennartmericonference/albums/72177720333663411/