In a recent publication by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Balázs Jarábik speaks about evolving dynamics around Transnistria in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine. He argues that while the region has so far remained relatively stable, this stability is increasingly fragile and shaped by external pressures rather than internal resilience. Transnistria’s economic and political survival depends on a delicate balance between Moldova, Ukraine, and Russia. As regional security dynamics shift, the enclave faces growing uncertainty, with limited capacity to adapt independently.